MLS Expansion

The biggest news that came out during the halftime of the MLS All-Star game was that MLS’s new goal is to have 24 teams in the league by 2020.  For the longest time MLS’s stated goal was to reach 20 teams in the league which was achieved on May 21^st this year when New York City FC was announced to be the 20^th team and will start to play in 2015.  I thought that this expansion was going to be the last and I am very apprehensive to a MLS with a total of 24 teams; specifically because they will never be able to have a balanced schedule, the division of conferences will get very complicated and MLS could be continuing expansion to receive the large expansion fees that accompany new teams.   But MLS seems to be set on further expansion specifically in Southeastern United States.

As you can see there is a huge cap in the Florida/Georgia area:

The cities/areas up for expansion include the likes of Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, North Carolina, Orlando, Sacramento, and San Antonio. 

Outlook on possible expansion sites:

Atlanta- is the largest television market that currently does not a MLS team, and has a metro population of over 5 million.  The Altanta Silverbacks, a North American Soccer League team, have no plans of being “promoted” to the MLS and have not had talks with MLS officials.   But, Atlanta Falcons ownership has expressed interest in a MLS franchise and with them reaching an agreement with the city on a new stadium with a retractable roof similar to the situation in Vancouver with BC Place. 

Detroit- Back in 2009, interest in acquiring a MLS expansion franchise by a Canadian firm after their purchase of Pontiac Saddledome for a low price of $600,000 but did not receive the franchise.  The same firm came back with a new proposal, on July 24^th this year, to purchase a site in downtown Detroit and turn it into a residential and entertainment district anchored by a new MLS stadium and franchise.  A Detroit team would not only be able to reach the metro population of 4.2 million in Detroit but with it so close to the border soccer fans in South Western Ontario will gladly travel over the boarder to support a team of their own closer than Toronto.

Miami- MLS sees Miami as a key place to setup a team with the large hole in the Southeast.  Recently, David Beckham, who had it written in his contract that he had an option to start a franchise at an expansion fee of only $25 million compared to the $100 million NYCFC had to pay, with Marcelo Claure, a wealthy businessman, have visited different stadiums in the Miami area to look for possible venues for a new franchise.   With this cheaper expansion fee and the marketability of Beckham as an owner I see both sides reaching an agreement.

North Carolina- MLS President Mark Abott and NASL commissioner David Downs have talked with Carolina Railhawks ownership about the possibility of moving up to MLS in the past but nothing has ever came of these discussions.  But with the almost guaranteed expansion in the Florida area, North Carolina could be seen as over saturating the area.

Orlando- Currently has an USL Pro team in Orlando City SC which has the highest average attendance in the USL and has finished the last two seasons in 1^st place of USL Pro and was the champion in 2011.  With the on and off the field success Orlando is seen as a lock especially since the introduction of Flavio Augusto da Silva, a Brazilian entrepreneur and multimillionaire, as a new co-owner only adds to the already strong ownership which includes Phil Rawlins a part owner and director of Stoke City of the EPL.  The addition of Orlando will complete the MLS’s goal of entering the Southeast.

Sacramento- The city will have a USL Pro team competing in 2014 and the ultimate plan for the investors led by Warren Smith is to convert the franchise into a MLS team.  Furthermore, the city is currently studying different potential stadium sites for a soccer specific stadium which is always a positive to have when wanting to move up to MLS.  But with there already being 3 MLS teams in California I’m not convinced MLS will want another team there.

San Antonio- The San Antonio Scorpions started playing in 2012 and finish first in the NASL and this season opened up Toyota Field an 8,000 seat soccer specific stadium that can be easily expanded upon receiving a MLS expansion franchise.  Furthermore, San Antonio would have 2 instant rivals in FC Dallas and Houston Dynamo reinvigorating a seemingly stagnate regional rivalry.

What Will Happen? I believe the four cities that will receive an expansion franchise will be in this order:

1.       Orlando

2.       Miami

3.       San Antonio

4.       Atlanta

These expansion teams would solve the problem of the bare Southeastern US with Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta all getting teams.  They would hopefully replicate the success in the Pacific Northwest of Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland, creating their own regional rivalry.  While San Antonio would be a safe and successful expansion with the infrastructure already in place for MLS play.

Effect on Conferences

With the addition of NYCFC that will take the league to a total of twenty teams but New York should be placed in the East making a total of 11 Eastern conference teams and 9 Western Conference teams. I think Houston will be moved back to the West balancing the Conferences.  MLS seems set on not increasing the amount of games past 34, so each team would play once against teams from the other conference, 3 times against 6 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 3 in-conference rivals.

If Orlando is added next that will take it to 11 teams in the East and 10 in the West.  Eastern Conference teams will play once against each Western Conference team, 3 times against 4 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 6 in-conference rivals.  While Western Conference teams will play once against each Eastern Conference team, 3 times against 5 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 4 in-conference rivals.

With Miami being added next there will be 12 teams in the East and 10 in the West. MLS would then balance out the conferences by moving Sporting Kansas City to the Western Conference, making two conferences with 11 teams.  In this situation each team would play once against teams from the other conference, 3 times against 3 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 7 in-conference rivals.

San Antonio being the next team added would take MLS to 12 teams in the West and 11 in the East.  Eastern Conference teams will play once against each Western Conference team, 3 times against 2 in-conference rivals, 2 times against 8 in-conference rivals.  While Western Conference teams will play each Eastern Conference team once, 3 times against 1 in-conference rival, and 2 times against 10 in-conference rivals.

When the final team, Atlanta, joins, the conferences will be balanced with both having 12 teams.  The schedule for each team would be playing each team in the opposite conference once and then playing their in-conference rivals twice giving MLS as close to a balanced schedule as possible after all of this expansion.

Conclusion

As you can see MLS’s scheduling and conferences will go through a lot of changes as expansion occurs but will eventually find stable ground when they reach 24 teams.  I’m excited about the possibility of growth in MLS, not just into new cities but as becoming a major North American professional sports league.  But, will this expansion be enough? Will MLS change their next goal to 28, 30, 32 teams just as when they reach their goal of 20 teams they changed it to 24.  This level of expansion won’t happen until at least 20 years in the future but if it happens could we possibly see the implementation of internal promotion/relegation between a possible MLS 1/MLS 2 where there are two leagues of 16 teams.  We will just have to wait and see what becomes of MLS as it begins its new era.