The Week That Was - August 26th

Here are the updated standings:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qPRqJFXHoRajB3cWJmRWlGYnc/edit

Toronto FC

So that’s what a game between the two last place teams in the Eastern Conference looks like, two defensive errors lead to the two goals of the game in a 1-1 draw.  On the first, Dwayne De Rosario scored a beautiful goal from 30 yards out, to take his MLS career total to 103 goals.  But just seconds before Jonathan Osorio had a perfect opportunity to take the ball away but instead was a pylon.  Osorio was later subbed off in the 34^th minute after aggravating an ankle injury suffered during training this week.  Nelson’s lineup decision have to come into question when he is starting players prone to an injury and players that haven’t had the best past few weeks.  Specifically, Ashtone Morgan who has not had the best outings lately, and we recently brought in Left Back Jonas Elmer who was said to compete with him for a starting job.  Why bring in players that are supposedly going to compete for starting positions and when the current starting player opens up an opportunity, through their own bad play, but doesn’t give them the start?  

TFC’s goal came in the 60^th minute when Reggie Lambe attempted a pass but was cleared right back to him and was able to continue his run and cross it into the 18-yard box, where for the first there were 3 TFC players ready to receive the ball and Bobby Convey slotted it into the bottom left corner.  DC almost took the lead back when former Red, Luis Silva’s side volley attempt almost found the back of the net if it were not for another great save by Joe Bendik. TFC had one last chance through Robert Earnshaw in the 82^nd minute when his right footed curling shot almost nestled into the far post bottom corner but it came to nothing like so much effort in this world, and with that the game came to an eventual end.  

Movers of the Week

With Seattle moving up into the playoff places each Western Conference playoff bound team moved 7 points closer to clinching. But Real Salt Lake was the biggest winner through a draw and a win this past week moving 11 points closer to clinching. Chivas USA was had the biggest drop in the West getting 4 points closer to being eliminated from playoff contention through a loss and the 5^th place points moving up 1.  In the East, most playoff bound teams moved further away from clinching because of Houston dropping out of the playoff spots, but Montreal was able to get 1 point closer to clinching.  Columbus had the biggest drop of 3 points getting that much closer to playoff elimination.  DC United, Chivas USA, and Toronto FC continue to be the only teams 20 points or less till elimination with 6, 12, 13 respectively but Columbus Crew and San Jose Earthquakes are knocking on the door with 21, and 22.

Predictions

Last Week

FC Dallas @ Chivas USA	FCD Win	Correct FCD Win 3-1
Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers	POR Win	Wrong Draw 3-3
Sporting Kansas City @ Chicago Fire	Draw	Wrong CHI Win 1-0
Houston Dynamo @ Montreal Impact	MTL Win	Correct MTL Win 5-0
Toronto FC @ DC United	TFC Win	Wrong Draw 1-1
San Jose @ FC Dallas	SJ Win	Wrong Draw 2-2
LA Galaxy @ Vancouver Whitecaps	VAN Win	Wrong LA Win 1-0
Columbus Crew @ Real Salt Lake	RSL Win	Correct RSL Win 4-0
New York Red Bulls @ Chivas USA	NY Win	Wrong CHV Win 3-2
Philadelphia Union @ New England Revolution	NE Win	Correct NE Win 5-1
Portland Timbers @ Seattle Sounders	SEA Win	Correct SEA Win 1-0

Last Week’s Prediction Record	5-6
All Time Record	21-26

This Week

New England Revolution @ Toronto FC	TFC Win
Portland Timbers @ Real Salt Lake	RSL Win
Seattle Sounders @ Columbus Crew	SEA Win
Montreal Impact @ Philadelphia Union	MTL Win
DC United @ New York Red Bulls	NY Win
Colorado Rapids @ Sporting Kansas City	SKC Win
San Jose Earthquakes @ LA Galaxy	LA Win
Houston Dynamo @ Chicago Fire	Draw
Chivas USA @ Vancouver Whitecaps	VAN Win

The Week That Was - August 20th

Here are the updated standings:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qPRqJFXHoRTGNHM214ZHMzVm8/edit

Toronto FC

So remember all of the optimism of last week, gone.  After this past weekend’s performance I have no belief that the playoffs are possible so from here on out, similarly to the past few season, each game will be its own experience.  The last 10 games will be an extended preseason to the 2014 season hopefully we will see growth in the team.  Especially after the arrival of the much hyped Maximiliano Urruti, the integration of the new signings of Urruti, Rey, Elmur will either be the start of the Nelson/Payne Revolution. Or as always happens, things won’t come together after the new regime has brought all of their players in, the supporters and higher ups will be calling for coaching/management changes and after the 2014 season we will be in the same situation as the beginning of this season.   Let’s hope things change not just in the next game vs DC United but the overall supporter mentality in managerial changes.  Maybe for once will let someone else then Mo Johnston have more than two years to put their plan into place.

Movers of the Week

The Los Angeles Galaxy moved up into the playoff picture knocking down the Seattle Sounders.  With the Sounders moving down the points till clinching of the playoff teams went up except for Portland and Colorado who stayed the same.  FC Dallas had the biggest drop of 5 points after losing their game versus Portland and Seattle moving the 5^th place points up by 2.  Montreal and Houston were the biggest gainers this week both getting 6 points closer to clinching a playoff spot with wins and the max points of Chicago, the team with the highest max points of a non-playoff team, dropping by 3.  Chicago, Toronto, and DC United were the biggest losers this week all three losing their game combined with the 5^th place team’s points increasing by 3 they all dropped 6 points closer to elimination.  Chivas USA, Toronto, and DC are still the only teams to be below 20 points till eliminated with 16, 15, and 8 respectively.

Predictions

Last Week

DC United @ Montreal Impact	MTL Win	Correct MTL Win 2-1
Toronto FC @ Columbus Crew	TFC Win	Wrong CLB Win 2-0
Chicago Fire @ New England Revs	Draw	Wrong NE Win 2-0
Philadelphia Union @ New York Red Bulls	NY Win	Wrong Draw 0-0
Seattle Sounders @ Houston Dynamo	SEA Win	Wrong HOU Win 3-1
Vancouver Whitecaps @ Colorado Rapids	COL Win	Correct COL Win 2-0
Real Salt Lake @ LA Galaxy	LA Win	Correct LA Win 4-2
FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers	POR Win	Correct POR Win 2-1
Sporting Kansas City @ San Jose Earthquakes	SKC Win	Wrong SJ Win 1-0

Last Week’s Prediction Record	4-5
All Time Record	16-20

This Week

FC Dallas @ Chivas USA	FCD Win
Real Salt Lake @ Portland Timbers	POR Win
Sporting Kansas City @ Chicago Fire	Draw
Houston Dynamo @ Montreal Impact	MTL Win
Toronto FC @ DC United	TFC Win
San Jose @ FC Dallas	SJ Win
LA Galaxy @ Vancouver Whitecaps	VAN Win
Columbus Crew @ Real Salt Lake	RSL Win
New York Red Bulls @ Chivas USA	NY Win
Philadelphia Union @ New England Revolution	NE Win
Portland Timbers @ Seattle Sounders	SEA Win

The Week That Was-August 13th

Here are the updated standings:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qPRqJFXHoRQ2YxdllNVzBvRVU/edit

Toronto FC

Seattle 2 Toronto 1, two defensive errors, one of which was an own goal and Toronto loses another home game when they need to be picking up all home points possible to have any chance of reaching the playoffs.  I know it’s irrationally optimistic but I will continue to hold the belief of 2013 playoffs for Toronto FC until they are mathematically eliminated.  Blind optimism is the only way to stay sane as a TFC supporter.    On the bright side Osorio notched another goal to take his total to 5, in his incredible rookie season.  But to have any chance, however so small, Toronto needs to bring in these supposed Designated Player level signings in the next few days to add more attacking options.  One of the targets, Max Urruti is supposedly on his way to Toronto right now and will soon be announced.  The chance is slim, but Toronto will have to get 10 out of 15 points over the next five games to keep my playoff hopes alive, while it seems the club could already be resigned to focusing on next year.  Hopefully with the incoming players the team will be revived and make a run for it.

Movers of the Week

The Western Conference experienced the same thing as the Eastern Conference last week, with Seattle moving up into the playoff spots each team got 6 points closer to clinching.  In addition to this 6 points Vancouver and Salt Lake both gained an additional 3 points with both teams winning.  San Jose was the biggest loser this week getting 4 points closer to elimination with a loss and the 5^th place points moving up 1.  In the East, Kansas City and Philadelphia both got 3 points closer to clinching a playoff spot, while New England, Toronto, and DC all dropped 3 points closer to being eliminated, each with a loss this weekend.  Finally, after this week, Chivas USA joined DC United in dropping below 20 points to elimination with 18 and 14 points until elimination, respectively.

Predictions

Last Week

Seattle Sounders @ Toronto FC	TFC Win	Wrong SEA Win 2-1
New York Red Bulls @ Columbus Crew	NY Win	Wrong CLB Win 2-0
San Jose Earthquakes @ Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	Wrong VAN Win 2-0
DC United @ Philadelphia Union	PHI Win	Correct PHI Win 2-0
New England Revolution @ Sporting Kansas City	SKC Win	Correct SKC Win 3-0
Montreal Impact @ Chicago Fire	CHI WIn	Correct CHI Win 2-1
Houston Dynamo @ Real Salt Lake	RSL Win	Correct RSL Win 1-0
LA Galaxy @ FC Dallas	LA Win	Wrong Draw 3-3
Colorado Rapids @ Chivas USA	COL Win	Wrong Draw 1-1

Last Week’s Prediction Record	4-5
All Time Record	12-15

This Week

DC United @ Montreal Impact	MTL Win
Toronto FC @ Columbus Crew	TFC Win
Chicago Fire @ New England Revs	Draw
Philadelphia Union @ New York Red Bulls	NY Win
Seattle Sounders @ Houston Dynamo	SEA Win
Vancouver Whitecaps @ Colorado Rapids	COL Win
Real Salt Lake @ LA Galaxy	LA Win
FC Dallas @ Portland Timbers	POR Win
Sporting Kansas City @ San Jose Earthquakes	SKC Win

The Week That Was - August 6th

Here are the updated standings:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3qPRqJFXHoRelZEU3hldUtVb0U/edit

Toronto FC

Wiedeman got the start like I hoped and provided high amounts of pressure when necessary and we got a midfielder forward to score the only goal of the game, weird thing though it was Matias Laba.  Yes, our defensive midfielder, a player who has never scored a goal in his professional career.  He charged forward like he’d done it many times before, had a beautiful cut back into the middle of the field to avoid a defender, slotted it home but a defender was lucky to block it, but he followed up and put it in the back of the net.  Oh yeah this happened in the 2^nd minute.  From then on, TFC seemed likely to give up a goal with all the pressure they were allowing but Joe Bendik, Ashtone Morgan, and Richard Eckersley were up for the test all making key saves.  We got lucky with the two clearances of the lines by defenders but you can feel a change in the defending ability of TFC with the addition of Steven Caldwell and return of Richard Eckersley.

This week, TFC will have a big test in Seattle, especially after their recent addition of USMNT player and former Tottenham player Clint Dempsey to the team.  But for some reason I actually believe TFC can win, it might be blind hope but is that what being a supporter is all about.

Movers of the Week

In the Western Conference no team had a greater than 1 point gain closer to clinching a playoff spot, but both FC Dallas and Chivas USA dropped 4 points closer to being eliminated after both losing their game in combination with Vancouver’s draw.  In the Eastern Conference it was a totally different story, all current playoff bound teams got 5 points closer to clinching a playoff spot after Houston Dynamo moved up into a playoff spot lower the highest max points in the bottom 5.  New York was the only playoff team to build upon these 5 points after their win versus Kansas City moving them a total of 8 points closer to clinching the playoffs.  While in the bottom half Columbus was the biggest loser, getting 6 points closer to elimination after a loss to Houston and the 5^th points total moving up 3.  Additionally, DC United was the first team to drop below 20 points to elimination.

Predictions

Last Week

New York Red Bulls @ Sporting Kansas City	SKC Win	Wrong NY win 3-2
Montreal Impact @ DC United	MTL Win	Wrong DC win 3-1
Chicago Fire @ Philadelphia Union	Draw	Wrong CHI win 2-1
Real Salt Lake @ Colorado Rapids	RSL Win	Wrong Draw 2-2
Columbus Crew @ Houston Dynamo	HOU Win	Correct HOU win 3-1
Chivas USA @ San Jose Earthquakes	SJ Win	Correct SJ win 2-0
FC Dallas @ Seattle Sounders	SEA Win	Correct SEA win 3-0
Vancouver Whitecaps @ Portland Timbers	POR Win	Wrong Draw 1-1
Toronto FC @ New England Revolution	TFC Win	Correct TFC win 1-0

Last Week’s Prediction Record	4-5
All Time Record	8-10

This Week

Seattle Sounders @ Toronto FC	TFC Win
New York Red Bulls @ Columbus Crew	NY Win
San Jose Earthquakes @ Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw
DC United @ Philadelphia Union	PHI Win
New England Revolution @ Sporting Kansas City	SKC Win
Montreal Impact @ Chicago Fire	CHI WIn
Houston Dynamo @ Real Salt Lake	RSL Win
LA Galaxy @ FC Dallas	LA Win
Colorado Rapids @ Chivas USA	COL Win

MLS Expansion

The biggest news that came out during the halftime of the MLS All-Star game was that MLS’s new goal is to have 24 teams in the league by 2020.  For the longest time MLS’s stated goal was to reach 20 teams in the league which was achieved on May 21^st this year when New York City FC was announced to be the 20^th team and will start to play in 2015.  I thought that this expansion was going to be the last and I am very apprehensive to a MLS with a total of 24 teams; specifically because they will never be able to have a balanced schedule, the division of conferences will get very complicated and MLS could be continuing expansion to receive the large expansion fees that accompany new teams.   But MLS seems to be set on further expansion specifically in Southeastern United States.

As you can see there is a huge cap in the Florida/Georgia area:

The cities/areas up for expansion include the likes of Atlanta, Detroit, Miami, North Carolina, Orlando, Sacramento, and San Antonio. 

Outlook on possible expansion sites:

Atlanta- is the largest television market that currently does not a MLS team, and has a metro population of over 5 million.  The Altanta Silverbacks, a North American Soccer League team, have no plans of being “promoted” to the MLS and have not had talks with MLS officials.   But, Atlanta Falcons ownership has expressed interest in a MLS franchise and with them reaching an agreement with the city on a new stadium with a retractable roof similar to the situation in Vancouver with BC Place. 

Detroit- Back in 2009, interest in acquiring a MLS expansion franchise by a Canadian firm after their purchase of Pontiac Saddledome for a low price of $600,000 but did not receive the franchise.  The same firm came back with a new proposal, on July 24^th this year, to purchase a site in downtown Detroit and turn it into a residential and entertainment district anchored by a new MLS stadium and franchise.  A Detroit team would not only be able to reach the metro population of 4.2 million in Detroit but with it so close to the border soccer fans in South Western Ontario will gladly travel over the boarder to support a team of their own closer than Toronto.

Miami- MLS sees Miami as a key place to setup a team with the large hole in the Southeast.  Recently, David Beckham, who had it written in his contract that he had an option to start a franchise at an expansion fee of only $25 million compared to the $100 million NYCFC had to pay, with Marcelo Claure, a wealthy businessman, have visited different stadiums in the Miami area to look for possible venues for a new franchise.   With this cheaper expansion fee and the marketability of Beckham as an owner I see both sides reaching an agreement.

North Carolina- MLS President Mark Abott and NASL commissioner David Downs have talked with Carolina Railhawks ownership about the possibility of moving up to MLS in the past but nothing has ever came of these discussions.  But with the almost guaranteed expansion in the Florida area, North Carolina could be seen as over saturating the area.

Orlando- Currently has an USL Pro team in Orlando City SC which has the highest average attendance in the USL and has finished the last two seasons in 1^st place of USL Pro and was the champion in 2011.  With the on and off the field success Orlando is seen as a lock especially since the introduction of Flavio Augusto da Silva, a Brazilian entrepreneur and multimillionaire, as a new co-owner only adds to the already strong ownership which includes Phil Rawlins a part owner and director of Stoke City of the EPL.  The addition of Orlando will complete the MLS’s goal of entering the Southeast.

Sacramento- The city will have a USL Pro team competing in 2014 and the ultimate plan for the investors led by Warren Smith is to convert the franchise into a MLS team.  Furthermore, the city is currently studying different potential stadium sites for a soccer specific stadium which is always a positive to have when wanting to move up to MLS.  But with there already being 3 MLS teams in California I’m not convinced MLS will want another team there.

San Antonio- The San Antonio Scorpions started playing in 2012 and finish first in the NASL and this season opened up Toyota Field an 8,000 seat soccer specific stadium that can be easily expanded upon receiving a MLS expansion franchise.  Furthermore, San Antonio would have 2 instant rivals in FC Dallas and Houston Dynamo reinvigorating a seemingly stagnate regional rivalry.

What Will Happen? I believe the four cities that will receive an expansion franchise will be in this order:

1.       Orlando

2.       Miami

3.       San Antonio

4.       Atlanta

These expansion teams would solve the problem of the bare Southeastern US with Orlando, Miami, and Atlanta all getting teams.  They would hopefully replicate the success in the Pacific Northwest of Vancouver, Seattle, and Portland, creating their own regional rivalry.  While San Antonio would be a safe and successful expansion with the infrastructure already in place for MLS play.

Effect on Conferences

With the addition of NYCFC that will take the league to a total of twenty teams but New York should be placed in the East making a total of 11 Eastern conference teams and 9 Western Conference teams. I think Houston will be moved back to the West balancing the Conferences.  MLS seems set on not increasing the amount of games past 34, so each team would play once against teams from the other conference, 3 times against 6 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 3 in-conference rivals.

If Orlando is added next that will take it to 11 teams in the East and 10 in the West.  Eastern Conference teams will play once against each Western Conference team, 3 times against 4 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 6 in-conference rivals.  While Western Conference teams will play once against each Eastern Conference team, 3 times against 5 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 4 in-conference rivals.

With Miami being added next there will be 12 teams in the East and 10 in the West. MLS would then balance out the conferences by moving Sporting Kansas City to the Western Conference, making two conferences with 11 teams.  In this situation each team would play once against teams from the other conference, 3 times against 3 in-conference rivals, and 2 times against 7 in-conference rivals.

San Antonio being the next team added would take MLS to 12 teams in the West and 11 in the East.  Eastern Conference teams will play once against each Western Conference team, 3 times against 2 in-conference rivals, 2 times against 8 in-conference rivals.  While Western Conference teams will play each Eastern Conference team once, 3 times against 1 in-conference rival, and 2 times against 10 in-conference rivals.

When the final team, Atlanta, joins, the conferences will be balanced with both having 12 teams.  The schedule for each team would be playing each team in the opposite conference once and then playing their in-conference rivals twice giving MLS as close to a balanced schedule as possible after all of this expansion.

Conclusion

As you can see MLS’s scheduling and conferences will go through a lot of changes as expansion occurs but will eventually find stable ground when they reach 24 teams.  I’m excited about the possibility of growth in MLS, not just into new cities but as becoming a major North American professional sports league.  But, will this expansion be enough? Will MLS change their next goal to 28, 30, 32 teams just as when they reach their goal of 20 teams they changed it to 24.  This level of expansion won’t happen until at least 20 years in the future but if it happens could we possibly see the implementation of internal promotion/relegation between a possible MLS 1/MLS 2 where there are two leagues of 16 teams.  We will just have to wait and see what becomes of MLS as it begins its new era.

MLS All-Star Game

A preseason Italian Serie A team, in AS Roma, versus a collection of the supposed best players in Major League Soccer in midseason form played each other in the “MLS All-Star Game” last night at Sporting Park home of Sporting Kansas City in front of 21,175 people. The game finished AS Roma 3 – MLS All-Stars 1.

MLS props this game up as a way of furthering the leagues international exposure and allows their players to compete against the best teams in the world.  I see it as portraying our league, MLS, as an inferior product compared to soccer in Europe.  We would never see the English Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or any other major professional soccer league take a break in the middle of their season to have a foreign club come play their best players, albeit a club that is using it as a preseason game.

Don Garber, Commissioner of MLS, said that the “stated” goal of MLS is to be one of the best leagues in the world by 2022, if this is to be accomplished the MLS All-Star game, as it is now, needs to be scraped.  No one in the world of soccer will take the MLS seriously if it continues.  MLS needs to be able to grow by itself if will ever truly be one of the top leagues in the world.

If the All-Star game needs to continue the only way I can support it is to see the elimination of foreign clubs involvement and switching back to an East vs. West format, similar to other North American professional sports leagues.  The All-Star game could then be used to determine which Conference champion has home field advantage in the MLS Cup, similar to how the MLB uses its All-Star Game. This change would, in my opinion, bring actual relevance to the All-Star instead of being an overhyped friendly.

Oh yah, speaking of overhyped friendlies AS Roma’s next game is August 7^th vs. Toronto, if you can’t tell already I’m really excited.